Anthony Angel
11/03/09
There is a well-known game, which is played at children’s birthday parties the world over. It’s called musical chairs, where the participants compete to be able to sit down on a limited number of chairs. The winners are all those who get a seat – the losers are all those who do not.
In Israel, there is a very similar game, involving child-like squabbling over a limited number of seats. It is played every few years, and goes by the name of the general election.
A little over a month ago, elections to the 18th Knesset were held. The centrist Kadima party, headed up by Tzipi Livni won the most seats, gaining 28 out of the 120 available. Likud (right wing) came in second place, gaining 27 seats, followed by Yisrael Beiteinu (very right wing) with 15 and the left-wing Labour party with 13.
After the elections, the Israeli President has to ask the party leader who he feels is most capable of forming a coalition to build a government. Traditionally, this person is the leader of the party with the most seats, (i.e. the person who won the election). President Shimon Peres took the unprecedented step of asking the runner-up Likud leader, Benjamin Netanyahu or Bibi, to form a government since, although Kadima had more seats, the right-wing and religious bloc parties gained 65 seats, leaving the left-wing bloc and Arab parties with 55.
One of the major upsets of the election was the massive gain in popularity of the right-wing ultra-nationalist party, Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our Home). The party is the third largest in the Knesset, leaving the mainstream left-wing Labour party trailing in fourth place. Yisrael Beiteinu are now a major player in the coalition, as they will probably control approximately a quarter of the seats in it. Their leader, Avigdor Lieberman, will only take part in a coalition if he is rewarded with a high-ranking governmental post – such as foreign secretary – but his hard-line position divides opinion among more moderate parties in Israel, the wider Jewish world and politicians the world over.
Currently, Likud are close to forming agreements with Yisrael Beiteinu and the Sephardi religious party – Shas. This would give them 53 seats. The remaining 8 seats will most likely come from the relatively small, minor parties. It is extremely unlikely that any government will involve either Kadima or Labour.
The leaders of all of the major parties have agreed that the current electoral system, which leads to the farcical situation which we’re currently in, has to be changed, but the way in which this change will happen ironically depends upon the make-up and the strength of the coalition in power.
Bibi has until March 20th to form a coalition, so expect to hear about the make-up of the new government in the next week or so
Despite not being the leader of the Kadima party, Ehud Olmert is still Prime Minister until a new government is formed.
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As well as forming a new Government, life continues as normal in Israel (if there is such a thing as normal in Israel).
Despite the end of Operation Cast Lead and both Israel and Hamas unilaterally declaring cessations of hostilities, the future is still uncertain. Rockets are still being fired by Hamas and other terrorist groups at Sderot, Ashkelon and the Sha’ar HaNegev region, and the IDF is still responding to these attacks, often targeting smuggling tunnels under the Egyptian border.
Israel has a public policy of not negotiating directly with Hamas (due to the small inconvenience of them being a terrorist group). However, Egypt are currently mediating in talks between Israel and Hamas about a mutually negotiated ceasefire. One of Israel’s main prerequisites for this ceasefire is the release of the captured soldier Gilad Shalit, who has now been in captivity for around 1000 days. Ehud Olmert has stated that securing the release of Shalit is one of his main priorities before he leaves office, and hopes are still high to see his safe return.
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Currently there are talks being held in Cairo between Hamas and Fatah about forming a national unity Government, and bringing the Palestinian people in the West Bank and the Gaza strip under a single rule again.
Since Hamas seized power of the Gaza strip in 2007, the Palestinian people have been under divided rule. The Fatah-led Palestinian Authority (PA) has been in control of the West Bank, and Hamas has been in control of the Gaza strip. Israel has no contact with Hamas, who are a terrorist organisation. By contrast, Israel has regular contact with Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the PA, and negotiations have yielded some results, with the security of some Palestinian towns in the hands of PA-led police forces and a building up of trust between the two sides.
The talks on the unity government have sprung up due to external pressure from the new American administration (see below), and internal pressure to recover from the aftermath of operation Cast Lead and to rebuild the Gaza strip.
Although talks in Cairo are progressing, Hamas have stated that they would not join a unity Government led by the current Fatah PA Prime Minister Salaam Fayad. Despite popular support from the USA, Fayad has recently resigned from his post as Prime Minister. President Abbas has yet to accept his resignation, and has not said anything about a possible replacement yet.
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After resigning because of it, and being questioned by police fifteen times about it, outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is likely to be charged with corruption for dealings he made with American businessman Moshe Talansky. The deals were either made either during Olmert’s term in office as Mayor of Jerusalem, or from his time as Trade and Industry minister.
On a similar theme of politicians behaving badly, the former President Moshe Katsav will be charged with rape and sexual offences. Katsav resigned two weeks before his seven-year term expired, as part of a plea bargain that he would not face rape charges, but lesser charges of sexual misconduct. Recently he has changed his mind about that bargain – confident that the courts will find him innocent.
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Not too much has radically changed under the new President Barack Obama. His newly appointed Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, was recently in Israel and the wider Middle East hoping to make a start on the new administration’s visions for the future, and to repair relations which were damaged under the Bush administration.
Clinton has reiterated Americas support for a two-state solution and to finding a lasting peace settlement, based on mutual compromise. The Americans have no dealings with Hamas, but do advocate a single Palestinian unity government, led by Fatah. This would of course contain Hamas members, but both America and Israel would be happy with this, provided that Hamas do not gain control of any of the important ministries.
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What would an Israel update be without at least a small segment on that bastion of freedom, democracy and human rights – Iran!
The Iranian nuclear program is still progressing. Last week in a report by Israeli Military Intelligence, it was stated that Iran has “crossed the technological threshold,” and its attainment of nuclear military capability is now a matter of “incorporating the goal of producing an atomic bomb into its strategy.” This is most likely political hyperbole, exaggerated in order to show the world the urgency of the matter, but there is a large element of truth to it.
The shortest estimates would put Iran at least eighteen months away from being able to build a nuclear weapon. Prime Minister-elect Netanyahu favours military action to stop Iran, whereas America is currently engaging in negotiations. Once again, the likelihood is that there will not be any change or major event concerning this before the formation of a new Government.
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Here’s a question for you: How many members of the Arab League have diplomatic relations with Israel?
Although the most obvious answer is two – Egypt and Jordan, with whom Israel has peace deals – the correct answer is actually three, with the additional country being the West African state of Mauritania.
However, Mauritania has recently severed all diplomatic relations with Israel, leading to the expulsion of the Israeli Ambassador, and the closure of the embassy. Whilst relations with Mauritania were not crucial for Israel, and domestic factors such as the rise of Islamic groups probably influenced this decision, it is the principle of the severing of relations which is most worrying. On the plus side, if you guessed the obvious answer, you are actually right again!
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Last Thursday, an Arab East Jerusalem resident injured two police officers in an attempted copy-cat terrorist attack like those involving tractors last year. The attack took place near to the Malha Mall, but the driver was shot and killed before he could inflict any more damage.
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And finally…
Last Sunday morning, two monkeys escaped from the biblical zoo in Jerusalem. One was located relatively quickly in the Ramat Sharet neighbourhood, whilst the other monkey (which was a lemur to be precise) was found in Bayit Vegan later on in the day.
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